Karina Strengthens, Tropical Storm Lowell Forms


http://earthchangesmedia.com/karina-strengthens-tropical-storm-lowell-forms
The National Hurricane Center’s advisory on Tropical Storm Karina, located about 1,500 miles from Hilo.
A large depression has formed and is moving west-northwestward away from land off Baja California.
Tropical Storm Karina at 5 p.m.:Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm C…

The National Hurricane Center’s advisory on Tropical Storm Karina, located about 1,500 miles from Hilo.

A large depression has formed and is moving west-northwestward away from land off Baja California.

Tropical Storm Karina at 5 p.m.:Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center ;Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center: ; Location…15.9N 133.6W ; About 1435 mi…2310 km e of Hilo Hawaii . Maximum sustained winds…65 mph…100 km/h.Present movement…WSW or 255 degrees at 8 mph…13 km/h .Minimum central pressure…996 mb…29.42 inches.
Watches and warnings: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook:

Karina has continued to become better organized over the past few hours. A convective cloud band wraps about 80 percent around the circulation, and the Dvorak data T-number from TAFB is now 3.5 which corresponds to an intensity estimate of 55 kt. The vertical shear over the storm has decreased and is forecast to stay low for another 24-36 hours. Upper-level outflow has also increased over the tropical cyclone. Therefore, Karina has an opportunity to intensify some more and it could become a hurricane tomorrow as indicated by the official forecast. Later in the forecast period, east-northeasterly shear is predicted to increase, which should cause gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model guidance through 36 hours, and close to the intensity model consensus thereafter.

The forward motion continues to slow and is now around 255/7 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Karina should push the tropical cyclone a little farther west over the next day or two. However the westward steering is likely to end in a couple of days as Karina becomes more influenced by the large circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell passing to its northeast. By late in the forecast period, a broad area of southwesterly low-level flow associated with Lowell should start drawing Karina toward the northeast.

The official forecast takes the storm farther northeast late in the period than the previous one, but not as much as some of our better track guidance. The new NHC track forecast is in good agreement with latest Florida State University Superensemble prediction.

Tropical Storm Lowell at 5 p.m.: Location…17.0N 118.6W. About 695 mi…1120 km sw of the southern tip of Baja California. Maximum sustained winds…40 mph…65 km/h.Present movement…WNW or 295 degrees at 7 mph…11 km/h .Minimum central pressure…1000 mb …29.53 inches .Watches and warnings: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook:

The cyclone has become slightly better organized over the past several hours, although the center remains on the northeastern side of a large area of deep convection. Dvorak estimates have risen to 35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the initial wind speed is raised to that value. Lowell has a couple of days to intensify further while it remains over warm waters with moderate easterly shear.
Only gradual strengthening is anticipated due to the large size of the system and its large radius of maximum winds. In a few days, the storm should traverse cooler waters and begin to slowly weaken. Model guidance is tightly clustered, and the new NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the previous interpolated forecast and the latest model consensus.

The storm has turned a little more to the right and is now moving 295/6. Lowell is expected to move slowly northwestward and then northward over the next couple of days as it moves into a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by an unseasonably strong deep-layer trough across the U.S. west coast. Little change was made to the previous NHC forecast in the first 48 hours with model guidance in excellent agreement. The trough should pass the storm by late Wednesday and then the subtropical ridge is expected to restrengthen, forcing Lowell to turn to the northwest at an increasing forward speed after day 3. Similar to the last forecast cycle, the guidance has shifted westward at longer range, and the NHC track prediction is moved in that direction.

A northward surge of moisture into the southwestern United States, partly caused by the eastern portion of the cyclone’s large circulation, is still forecast by most of the global models to occur by late Wednesday and Thursday.

Central Pacific Hurricane Center:

1. A low pressure area about 850 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is nearly stationary. There have been no thunderstorms near the center of this system for at least 12 hours. Thunderstorms continue to form along the east and northeast periphery of the system where the outer circulation is interacting with the circulation of Karina. Infrared and visible imagery show significant easterly shear in the area. Environmental conditions are not conducive for development during the next two days.* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent.

2. A weak low pressure area about 800 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii, has been moving west slowly. There have been persistent thunderstorms in the area for over 12 hours. Easterly wind shear at the upper levels of the atmosphere will likely prevent further development of this system over the next two days.* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday afternoon.

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About Earth Changes Media w/ Mitch Battros

Mitch Battros is a scientific journalist who is highly respected in both the scientific and spiritual communities due to his unique ability to bridge the gap between modern science and ancient text. Founded in 1995 – Earth Changes TV was born with Battros as its creator and chief editor for his syndicated television show. In 2003, he switched to a weekly radio show as Earth Changes Media. ECM quickly found its way in becoming a top source for news and discoveries in the scientific fields of astrophysics, space weather, earth science, and ancient text. Seeing the need to venture beyond the Sun-Earth connection, in 2016 Battros advanced his studies which incorporates our galaxy Milky Way - and its seemingly rhythmic cycles directly connected to our Solar System, Sun, and Earth driven by the source of charged particles such as galactic cosmic rays, gamma rays, and solar rays. Now, "Science Of Cycles" is the vehicle which brings the latest cutting-edge discoveries confirming his published Equation.
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